UFC 246 Betting Odds Analysis

This is the first in a series of new articles here on BJPenn.com in 2020 analyzing the betting odds for all UFC events. The first event of the year is UFC 246.

Note: All odds based on current odds at BestFightOdds.com. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Never bet what you can’t afford.

UFC 246 Betting Odds

Conor McGregor -350
Donald Cerrone +290

Holly Holm -135
Raquel Pennington +115

Maurice Greene -130
Aleksei Oleinik +110

Claudia Gadelha -115
Alexa Grasso -105

Diego Ferreira -230
Anthony Pettis +190

Maycee Barber -900
Roxanne Modafferi +600

Sodiq Yusuff -145
Andre Fili +125

Nasrat Haqparast -335
Drew Dober +275

Aleksa Camur -120
Justin Ledet +100

Askar Askarov -145
Tim Elliott +125

Ode Osbourne -145
Brian Kelleher +125

Sabina Mazo -115
JJ Aldrich -105

Here is my UFC 246 betting odds analysis:

• First off, I wouldn’t bet on McGregor at these odds. I do favor him to beat Cerrone, but -350 is way too high considering the 14-month layoff and the fact the fight is at 170lbs. When you make a bet you are looking for value, and I don’t see any here. It’s fun to have money on the main event, but don’t force a play if you don’t have to.
• In the co-main event, I think you have to favor Holm to beat Pennington. They’ve already fought before and Holm won the first time around. Yes, she’s older now and potentially on the decline, but Pennington hasn’t proven to be better than Holm. I like Holm to win this fight, and the fact the odds are this close to even could mean there’s a play to be made on her now.
• The opening pay-per-view bout is an excellent fight between Ferreira and Pettis. Crazy enough, Ferreira is somehow the older fighter in this bout. But considering how much damage Pettis has taken in his career and how many injuries he’s had, he’s much older in fight years. I like Ferreira here but I have to admit I was hoping he’d be an underdog.
• Heading down to the prelims, you have to favor the young prospect Barber to beat the aging vet Modafferi. But these odds are insane. Laying -900 is rarely worth it, and you’ll be kicking yourself if Modafferi ends up pulling off the upset. I don’t recommend betting on this fight even though I fully expect Barber to get her hand raised.
• In featherweight action, I really like Yusuff to beat Fili. This is actually one of my favorite bets on the whole card. With a perfect 3-0 record so far in the Octagon, the 26-year-old Nigerian has proven he has what it takes to be a contender in the UFC. Fili is a solid fighter but he’s been inconsistent. I think Yusuff will out-strike him and win this fight.
• In the lightweight division, I like Haqparast to beat Dober. Just 24, Haqparast has a nice 11-2 record in MMA including a 3-1 mark in the UFC. Dober is essentially a gatekeeper at this stage, while Haqparast is someone who could be banging on the door of the top-10 by the end of 2020. Haqparast, in my opinion, should be an even bigger favorite in this fight.

Who are your best bets for UFC 246?

This article first appeared on BJPENN.com on 1/16/2020.