‘UFC 193: Rousey vs. Holm’ Betting Breakdown: Can Holm Win You Big Money?

On November 13, 2015 UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Ronda Rousey will be stepping into the octagon to once again prove her dominance in the division. Many have tried to knock the champion off her throne, but Rousey is at the top of her game and has proven time and time again she is the one to beat. Her last four title defenses lasted only just over two minutes combined, and there is no question that she should be the heavy favorite walking into “UFC 193” next week.

Standing in the opposite corner of the champion will be Holly Holm. While she is undefeated in the UFC with two octagon-appearances to her name, fans and fighters alike were scratching their heads when it was announced that Holm would be next in line for a shot at UFC gold. Miesha Tate was told weeks prior to the announcement that she would be next in line, but UFC brass had other plans in mind for “Rowdy”.

Bookies have already labeled Holm as one of the biggest underdogs in UFC history at +1150, which means a bettor would only need to bet $10 to win $115. Bettors would often overlook odds like this in any other sport, but every athlete stepping into the octagon has a puncher’s chance. There is an opportunity to make big money next week and Holly Holm could make buying gifts for the holidays a whole lot easier.

Making the decision to place a wager on Holm can be difficult. After all, Rousey has been one of the most dominant champions in UFC history. Ignorant bettors would look at Rousey’s recent string of quick wins and would pass on placing wager on Holm, but several factors impacted Rousey’s last three bouts that someone the caliber of Holm can avoid.

Bethe Correia was sloppy in her approach and allowed Rousey to push her up against the cage where she punched her way to victory. Alexis Davis made a mistake and ate a knee to the body that made her to double over in pain, forcing the referee to stop the fight. Even someone as good as Cat Zingano made the wrong move and allowed herself to get thrown to the canvas and end up in an armbar in an unbelievable series of moves.

Holly Holm can learn from those ladies’ mistakes and has the patience to try standing on the outside to pick Ronda Rousey apart.

While it would be foolish to avoid betting on Holm simply because of Rousey’s quick wins, an intelligent gambler would take a step back and analyze statistics before placing a wager.

Rousey walks into the octagon with some of the most impressive stats within her division. According to FightMetric, she possesses a career average for 4.35 strikes landed per minute which towers over Holm’s 3.63. It also helps that Rousey’s average fight time is just 2 minutes and 26 seconds while Holm’s is 15 minutes. In order for us to take a more realistic look at how Rousey does with someone’s patient approach in striking, we will have to go back to her bout with Miesha Tate at UFC 168.

In the first ten minutes of action, Miesha Tate actually outstruck Ronda Rousey from a distance 23 to 10! Of course, Tate’s downfall was her takedown defense as she was thrown to the ground 6 times in the fight before getting submitted in the third.

The difference in skill-set and caliber between Ronda Rousey and the average bantamweight fighter is drastic to say the least, and there is a saying in the betting world that simply goes: “Don’t bet against Ronda Rousey”. It’s similar to the Jon Jones and Anderson Silva rule where you don’t bet against them until they give you a reason to do so. Once Jones showed he was mortal in his fight with Gustafsson, the rule was no longer applied to him. Chris Weidman proved it was safe to bet against Anderson Silva after he beat him twice in a row.

Nobody has given gamblers a reason to bet against Ronda Rousey, but if Holly Holm can keep the fight standing (and that’s a BIG “IF”), she could outstrike the champion and show some weaknesses.